Exploratory Research 2012

Demographic transformation. Challenges for macroeconomic policy-making

The main contribution of the study is to raise the issue of significant consequences of aging population on all the sectors in Armenia. The aim of the study is to evaluate the influence of demographic changes on the conventional financial programming model. The paper focuses on the sector-specific adjustments of financial programming model and its results. The main data sources for the study were the National Statistical Service of Armenia and Caucasus Barometer data. The main results of estimations suggest that deterioration of demographic situation will cause serious harm to fiscal accounts, GDP growth, savings, as well as the confidence of foreign investors. Thus, the author suggests several recommendations, which support the encouragement of higher rate of fertility, equal territorial development for reducing migration and growth of investments in education and science.