Economic growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia region exceeded expectations in 2017, in part due to stronger oil prices, remittances, and external demand, which are not expected to be sufficient, however, to maintain this growth momentum in 2018–19. Growth is projected to stabilize in the medium term around levels that are below the average reached in the first decade of this century. To avoid a new reality of subdued growth, a more deliberate push toward a private-sector-led growth model is needed now. That would enable countries to effectively leverage the opportunities created by the current rebound in global activity and the prospect of closer regional and global integration. In addition to preserving macroeconomic stability, including by addressing fiscal and financial sector challenges, countries therefore need to make further progress on structural reforms. For more details please click here to find the full text of the Regional Economic Outlook (Caucasus and Central Asia) report issued in May 2018.

Ms. Yulia Ustyugova has been the IMF Resident Representative in Armenia since August 2017. Previously she worked on Canada, Uruguay, Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala. Prior to joining the IMF staff, she worked at the Bank of Russia, taught at the Higher School of Economics, and served as an Advisor to Executive Director for the Russian Federation at the IMF. Her research focuses on fiscal and monetary policy frameworks in emerging market economies, and commodity prices and inflation dynamics. Ms. Yulia Ustyugova studied at Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne.